Saturday, August 8, 2015

Webinar Presentation 4



CAN ACCESS BALANCE THE EFFECT OF POVERTY?
Predictors of NAEP grade 4, 2007, 51 states
predictors
beta
t
P
Poverty
-0.72
7.42
0
Access
0.53
1.62
0.055
r2 = .63
Access = bks/student in school libraries, circulation in public libraries

Predictors of PIRLS:
Predictors of the reading test: PIRLS 2006
predictor
P
poverty
-0.41
0.005
independent reading in school
0.16
0.14
library: 500 books
0.35
0.005
Instruction
-0.19
0.085
r2 = .63 
Krashen, S., Lee, S.Y. and McQuillan, J. 2012. Is the library important? Multivariate studies at the national and international level. Journal of Language and Literacy Education, 8(1): 26-36.

Replication:  PIRLS 2011
Predictor
 beta
p
SES
0.52
0.01
library: 5000 bks
0.20
0.08
class libr
0.08
0.28
parent read
0.065
0.31
early lit
-0.26
0.04
Instruction
-0.016
0.5
r2 = .62

Note: Parental reading and classroom library correlated with PIRLS reading scores, but the effect disappeared in the multiple regression.
Note: Poverty and access are the main predictors of reading achievement in all studies.







Some Disturbing Data: In general, countries with high SES have high PIRLS reading scores and people (children and adults) say they like to read:  "baseline" data –
Country
HDI
parent likes
child likes
PIRLS
Hong Kong
0.898
14
21
571
Taiwan
0.882
17
23
553
Italy
0.874
24
23
541
Singapore
0.866
21
22
567
MEANS
.88 (.01)
19 (4.4)
22.3 (.96)
558 (13.7)
Baseline
.9 (.02)
43.7 (5.2)
33 (2.5)
538.4 (9.7)
But in some countries with high SES and high PIRLS scores, there is much less enthusiasm for reading (Hong Kong, Taiwan, Italy, Singapore).
"Test-prep" countries? PIRLS scores = true compentence?
Loh, E.K.Y. and Krashen, S. 2015. Patterns in PIRLS performance: The importance of liking to read, SES, and the effect of test prep. Asian Journal of Education and e-Learning 3(1).  http://ajouronline.com/index.php?journal=AJEEL

An allergy to SES and access to books? Fryer & Levitt (2004): SES accounts for 2/3 of gap, books in home accounts for the rest.
Fryer, R. & Levitt, S. 2004. Understanding the black-white test score gap in the first two years of school. The Review of Economics and Statistics 86(2): 447-464.

Meanwhile library funding is being cut in the US. School library cuts greater in high poverty areas (American Library Association, 2010. The State of America's Libraries; Kelley, M. 2010, Budget survey: Bottoming out? Library Journal, 2010.).

What about e-books? Major increase in the US: 28% of adults! http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/01/16/e-reading-rises-as-device-ownership-jumps/
Who owns e-book readers?
Income
tablet
e-reader
under 30,000
26%
14%
30 to 49,999
45%
35%
50 to 74,999
47%
42%
75,000+
65%
53%
Pew report. Adults age 18 or over.

The cost of e-books:  average best-seller - $10 to $15 http://www.howmuchisit.org/ebooks-cost/
To provide real access, e-books and e-book readers need to be A LOT cheaper.




THE COMMON CORE AND THE MOVEMENT TO "TEST THE WORLD"

THE US: A CASE STUDY
THE COMMON CORE = standards plus tests [NOTE: standards and tests go together. Tests are the spawn of the standards (Alfie Kohn and Jeb Bush!)]
Rationale for Common Core standards & TESTS: American schools are “broken”
Evidence = Performance on international test scores. We are "taking a shellacking."  - an odd view of economics
BUT:
American raw scores – not spectacular but not horrible, tied for 10th/60 on PISA 2009 reading (15 yr olds)

When researchers control for poverty, American scores are excellent:
Carnoy, M and Rothstein, R. 2013a, What Do International Tests Really Show Us about U.S. Student Performance. Washington DC: Economic Policy Institute. 2012. http://www.epi.org/), plus many other studies.
Carnoy and Rothstein (2013b) Response from Martin Carnoy and Richard Rothstein to OECD/PISA Comments (by Andreas Schleicher, OECD Deputy Director for Education and Special Advisor on Education Policy to the OECD’s Secretary-General, January 14, 2013) regarding our report “What do international tests really show about American student performance?” (Economic Policy Institute 2013)
If US had same social class distribution as top three (Canada, Finland, Korea), US score would be 518. Social class accounts for about a third of the math gap, one-half of reading gap.
Rank improves from 14 to 6 in reading, from 25 to 13 in math (Carnoy and Rothstein, 2013b)
Does not consider high concentration of high-poverty students in many schools.  (Carnoy and Rothstein, 2013a). Berliner: Not just percent high-poverty but their concentration in schools.  High levels of poverty concentrated = less access to books, other services provided by better-funded schools and neighborhoods.
Percent US children in poverty: now 25%. When only 23%, it was 2nd highest of all industrialized countries.  Finland = 5.3%. The problem is poverty. NOT: teaching, schools of ed, unions, parents, lack of national standards/tests

POVERTY: Improve schools to cure poverty (US Dept of Education), or cure poverty to improve schools?  "We are likely to find that the problems of housing and education, instead of preceding the elimination of poverty, will themselves be affected if poverty is first abolished.”   (Martin Luther King, 1967, Final Words of Advice)

Dr. King was right: Devastating effect of aspects of poverty on school achievement (Berliner, 2009)
a. Food deprivation/nutrition
b. Environmental toxins (eg the case of lead)
c.  Lack of health care (eg school nurses in high and low poverty schools)
d. Lack of access to books: home, school, community

SOLUTION
1. Full employment at a living wage for honest work
2. Short term: protect children from the effects of poverty
a. No child left unfed (S. Ohanian)
b. Improved health care at school (eg school nurses)
c.  Provide access to books: support libraries


WHERE WILL WE GET THE MONEY? REDUCE TESTING (NUT = no unnecessary testing)

Current level of CC$$ testing, compared to NCLB
NCLB:  end of year: CC$$:  end of year, interim (formative), possible pretest
NCLB: math, reading: CC$$: math, writing, sometimes science > test everything (standards being created for other subjects)
NCLB: 3-8, once in HS: CC$$: P-12
"How much testing?" http://sdkrashen.com/articles.php?cat=4

Evidence supporting increased testing? NONE
More standardized high stakes tests do not mean better performance: Nichols, Glass & Berliner, 2006.
Adding SATs to grades does not improve prediction of college success: (Bowen, Chingos, & McPherson, 2009; Geiser & Santelices, 2007) = teacher evaluation of students might be more valid?

The great testing boondoggle: all tests must be online. connect all students/provide computers/upgrade and replace/new "innovations"
The .01% invests very little, and takes NO RISK: Taxpayers pay for everything, and if it fails: students/teachers suffer, teachers blamed, but corporations win: Call for more tests and more technology.

We can protect children from much of the impact of poverty for a fraction of the cost of new tests. A modest proposal: Keep (an improved) NAEP, drop the rest.

The current debate: renewal of Elementary & Secondary Education Act (ESEA)
The opt-out movement:  http://unitedoptout.com/about/
The impact on proposals for the new law:
-       Keep NCLB levels
-       Test only every few years: A real change or "expanding the floor of the cage."
-       Conjecture: amount of testing deliberately made excessive, so it could be cut back a little, enough to satisfy some critics. The profits remain = online testing, bleeds legitimate school programs.

TESTING THE WORLD:  http://edushyster.com/?p=3559
WORLD-WIDE testing: Learning Metrics Task Force: http://www.brookings.edu/about/centers/universal-education/learning-metrics-task-force "to improve learning we must be able to measure and monitor its outcomes" (p. 30).
Seven areas to be tested: physical well-being (eg nutrition, exercise), social & emotional (eg conflict resolution, civic values, mental health), culture and the arts (eg awareness and respect for diversity, creative arts), learning approaches and cognition (reasoning and problem-solving, critical thinking), numeracy and mathematics, science and technology, and: literacy and communication

Combined test to be given at the end of primary school; reading also at end of grade three
"Ready to learn" testing on entry to primary school:"five of the seven domains: physical well-being, social and emotional, literacy and communication, learning approaches and cognition, and numeracy and mathematics."
p.26: Citizen of the World: Measuring among youth the demonstration of values and skills necessary for success in their communities, countries and the world. Beyond reading and numeracy …

Literacy and communication testing
    Early childhood level: Receptive language, Expressive language, Vocabulary, Print
Awareness
    Primary: Oral fluency, oral comprehension, reading fluency, reading comprehension, receptive vocabulary, written expression/composition
    Post-primary: Speaking and listening, writing and reading

Co-Chairs of Learning Task Force
Pratham – Rukmini Banerji, Director of Programs
Pearson – Michael Barber, Chief Education Advisor
UNICEF – Geeta Rao Gupta, Deputy Executive Director (Programmes)

The long term goal: The end of the teaching profession - http://skrashen.blogspot.com/2013/05/the-end-of-teaching-profession.html

The US education budget, K-12 – $600 billion, much is teacher benefits, retirement, salary
To elminate benefits/retirement
-       hire temps
-       Flipped classrooms and glorify technology in general
-       Eliminate due process
-       No raise for seniority
-       Stress importance of evalution (sends message that teachers are incompetent)
-       Attack unions
-       Claim schools are failing because of bad teaching
More money left for computers, with no supporting data, obsolete by the time they are installed

National Education Technology Plan, 2010:  US Department of Education insists that we introduce massive technology into the schools immediately, because of the "the pressing need to transform American education ...",  even if this means doing it imperfectly: Repairs can be done later: "... we do not have the luxury of time: We must act now and commit to fine-tuning and midcourse corrections as we go."

Assumptions:
(1) our schools are really really inadequate, and we must rush to fix them;
(2) technology is the major part of the fix; and
(3) imperfect technology is better than no technology.

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